Liga MX Femenil Week 14 Recap

With just three games left, we can start talking about magic numbers and tragic numbers. Those are the numbers that teams who have not clinched a Liguilla berth or been mathematically eliminated need to focus on, because they map out what needs to happen for each team to get into the playoffs - or face elimination.

(Feel free to skip this math nerd part if you want)

Both of these numbers are calculated using a team’s current amount of points, the total amount of points they could get if they win out, and since eighth place is the final spot in the Liguilla, the total amount of points the eighth place team could have if they lose out and the total amount of points the ninth place team could have if they win out.

The magic number is calculated by looking at how many points a team has, the maximum number of points they could have if they won out, and how many points the eighth place team could have if they won out. The tragic number is calculated by looking at how many points a team has, the maximum number of points they could have if they won out, and how many points the eighth place team could have if they lose out.

Looking at the table now, Juárez is a great example of the magic number. Their magic number (the number of points they need either by gaining points or the ninth place team losing points) is figured out by looking at how many points they have now (22), and figuring out how many points ninth place Toluca could get if they won out (28). The difference of those two numbers (6) is Juárez’ magic number - any combination over the remaining three games where they gain and Toluca doesn’t gain a point equaling six would ensure Juárez a spot in the Liguilla. So if this weekend Toluca loses and Juárez wins, they’re in the Liguilla.

Pumas however is a good example of the tragic number. Their tragic number is calculated looking at the maximum points they could have if they win their remaining three games (16 points now plus 9 from three wins would give them 26). Since they need to catch Atlas on points1, we calculate the difference between their hypothetical 26 and Atlas’ current total of 21 (since they’d need to not pick up points along the way). Any combination of Atlas gaining points and Pumas not picking up points equaling five will end Pumas’ Liguilla shot. If Atlas wins and Pumas draws, Atlas will have gained three points and Pumas will have missed out on two, meaning the best Pumas could get would be 23 points, one shy of Atlas’ 24.

Toluca is a perfect example of a team with both of these numbers. Toluca’s magic number is 9, while their tragic number is 8. In their remaining three games against León, at Cruz Azul, and hosting América, they need to get two more points than Atlas, who are at Puebla before hosting Rayadas and León and have a magic number of 7.

(Thanks for indulging the spreadsheet nerd in me.)

tl;dr Math can be useful and Juárez, Tijuana, Atlas, and Toluca all have to pay attention in the coming weeks to the math. Speaking of Juárez and Toluca…

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Game of the Week

FC Juárez 1, Toluca 1

Juárez and Toluca played a good one, and while a draw doesn’t help either team much it also kept the race for the final Liguilla spot very tight. Juárez was able to leapfrog Tijuana, drawing even on points but having a superior goal differential. Miah Zuazua hit the crossbar in the 20th, and Juárez really took the game to the visitors. Jasmine Casarez also hit the crossbar in the 61st minute before Myra Delgadillo put Juárez up in the 66th minute, getting onto a great cross from Blanca Solís. There was a bit of controversy in the 69th minute when Juárez Stefi Jiménez came off of her line to punch out a free kick and went down, getting a whistle before the ball was headed into the empty net. Toluca’s Brenda Woch was incensed, insisting that the contact she made with Jiménez was incidental, and replays showed she probably had a case to be made. Toluca however got the equalizer just into stoppage time as Woch hit a wonderful cross over to Mariel Román for her third goal of the season.

What makes Juárez so dangerous is their forwards and how good they are at moving the ball. Both Zuazua on the left and Casarez on the right can cut in and shoot, cross from the touchline, and are good at winning the ball back in the event that it’s lost. And if that wasn’t enough, they often switch sides to make the opposing full backs’ lives that much more miserable. Inside, teams have to deal with Delgadillo and Solís rotating between being a center forward and attacking midfielder (and sometimes pushing out wide!) - there are a lot of moving parts making it a nightmare for defenses to pick up who is going where and when. To their credit though Toluca was able to remain strong defensively, and Kayla Thompson is looking like the sleeper pickup of the last transfer window. Since the 10-2 debacle in Week 2 against Pachuca, Thompson and the defense has allowed more than one goal just twice: a 2-0 loss to Tigres in Week 4 and a 4-3 loss to Atlas in Week 6.

Other scores:

Cruz Azul 0, Guadalajara 2

With the loss, Cruz Azul is eliminated from Liguilla contention. Like so many other games this season they played well but just couldn’t pull it out against Chivas, who look to be peaking going into the Liguilla. Licha Cervantes put Chivas up in the first minute with an absolute golazo, putting the defender through the spin cycle before blasting one past Itzayana González. Cervantes now has eight goals in just 360 minutes of play on the season, missing three months with an injury. Caro Jaramillo got her sixth goal of the season in the 40th minute, driving into the box and scoring one-on-one with González.

Club Atlético de San Luis 2, Puebla F.C. 1

Puebla did not make it easy on San Luis, but the hosts ultimately prevailed and kept their Liguilla hopes alive with a 2-1 victory. Camila Fonseca got her first goal of her career in the 18th minute, putting the visitors up when she headed in a corner kick. Karen Cano equalized in the 51st minute with the first goal of her career with a header off of a corner that was very similar to Fonseca’s in the first half. Bea Parra got the game winner in the 65th on a great header off of the crossbar that was not off of a corner kick but instead came off of a great move and cross from Dani Carrandi. San Luis is still mathematically in it, with a magic number of 11 but a tragic number of just six while Puebla are eliminated, since they’d need to win out and have all of the teams above them to lose out. Since some of them play one another however, someone is guaranteed to get those points and therefore Puebla can not mathematically make the Liguilla.

Atlas 1, Pachuca 1

I thought this one would have been much higher scoring, but both teams kept it close, ending in a 1-1 draw. Janelly Farías put Pachuca up in the 10th minute, heading in a cross from Jenni Hermoso for her second goal of the season. Brenda Ceren tied it up in the 58th minute on a great effort, hitting a tight-angle shot at speed to keep her team above the Liguilla line. Things got heated late with Hermoso and Valeria Razo picking up matching yellow cards in the 82nd minute when Razo held Hermoso’s jersey and she retaliated with an elbow toward Razo’s head. Atlas remain in eighth place with 21 points and could go as high as sixth. Their magic number is just seven points, but Toluca is keeping pace with them. Pachuca meanwhile clinched with the result and would currently match up with Tigres.

Necaxa 1, Tigres UANL 4

Necaxa actually lead this one, but Tigres was just much too much and got a convincing 4-1 win. Lucia Muñoz has been with Necaxa since the Copa Liga MX Femenil in 2017, and her first ever goal was a banger, floating it in from distance in the 18th minute. Tigres however got a goal from Nancy Antonio and another from Belén “Pollito” Cruz before the half, and then subbed in Natalia Gaitán, Jackie Ovalle, Mia Fishel, and Jana Gutiérrez to finish the job. “Big Fish” Fishel got her 11th goal of the season, scoring in her third game in a row. Stephany “La Generala” got her fourth goal of the season, her second in as many games since returning from injury. Tigres clinched a Liguilla spot with the result, while Necaxa has been mathematically eliminated for a few weeks now.

América 2, Gallos Blancos de Querétaro 1

A thoroughly entertaining game. Gallos almost got to the half scoreless, but Natalia Mauleon got to a rebound of a Marta Alemany save to get her seventh goal of the season. “Súper Ki” Kiana Palacios got her 11th goal of the season in the 56th minute, but Leidy Ramos drew one back in the 68th and Querétaro never really looked out of it until late in the match. I like Querétaro’s defensive scheme, as it gave América fits by cutting off a lot of the passes to the forwards that they thrive on. It also helps that Alemany is having a great season, making several stops to keep Querétaro in the match. With the win, América clinched a spot in the Liguilla, while Gallos sees their tragic number down to just two.

Mazatlán FC 0, UNAM Pumas 6

Perhaps too little, too late for Pumas, who have a tragic number of four but are still in it thanks to a 6-0 thrashing of Mazatlán. Anahí Gómez got the first hat trick of her career as she now has five on the season. Luz Duarte had a brace, and Lucia Rodríguez picked up her first of the season in her fifth appearance. Pumas are the lowest seeded club to have a positive goal differential, which could come into play if they strike it lucky and get some results to go their way down the stretch. Mazatlán now has allowed 51 goals for minus 46 goal differential, which is an all-time worst for any club in the league, although the goal differential will most likely change over the course of the remaining three games.

León 1, Santos Laguna 1

Yashira Barrientos got her second goal of the season for León in the 12th minute and it looked like smooth sailing for La Fiera, but a 29th minute red card to Mariana Larroquette for elbowing a player. Katia Estrada was then subbed out in the 37th minute under concussion protocol, and we hope for her full and speedy recovery. After the half, “La Capi” Cinthya Peraza, who has hit a good run of form lately, notched her third of the season in the 63rd minute to give Santos a point on the road. León went down to nine players in the 78th minute when Isabela Esquivias was red carded for a denial of goal scoring opportunity against Desarae Félix. Santos also had a player sent off late when Brenda López was shown a red for a tackle on Brenda Díaz. Both teams are still mathematically in it, but León’s tragic number is three and Santos’ tragic number is one.

Rayadas de Monterrey 5, Club Tijuana 2

A tough loss for Tijuana, but Rayadas seem to have heard all of the talk about how maybe they had lost a step. They haven’t. Christina Burkenroad’s hat trick is her third of the season, giving her 13 goals so far. Carlee Giammona got her second of the season and Desirée Monsiváis picked up her first since returning from a loan spell at Glasgow City in the win, giving her 121 career goals in the league. On the other side of things, Valeria del Campo had an unfortunate own goal and Connie Caliz scored for Tijuana, who are in seventh place with 22 points. Their magic number is six.

Sub 18 results

Week 16

Atlas 5, Club Tijuana 0

Pachuca 1, Toluca 1

Gallos Blancos de Querétaro 0, Puebla F.C. 0

Guadalajara 0, Necaxa 0

Club Atlético de San Luis 0, Santos Laguna 3

FC Juárez 0, América 3

Rayadas de Monterrey 2, Mazatlán FC 1

Bye: UNAM Pumas (6-2-6), León (4-4-6)

Week 17 (all records are in W-D-L format, all times as listed):

Saturday, April 29

Tigres UANL (9-2-3) vs. Club Atlético de San Luis (2-5-7) - 9:00 AM

UNAM Pumas (6-2-6) vs. Cruz Azul (5-5-4) - 10:00 AM

Toluca (5-6-3) vs. Puebla F.C. (5-4-5) - 11:00 AM

América (9-3-2) vs. Necaxa (4-5-5) - 11:00 AM

Mazatlán FC (2-5-6) vs. Atlas (7-5-2) - 11:00 AM

León (4-4-6) vs. Santos Laguna (4-7-3) - 3:45 PM

Sunday, April 30

FC Juárez (2-1-12) vs. Pachuca (5-7-2) - 10:00 AM

Club Tijuana (1-3-10) vs. Rayadas de Monterrey (4-6-4) - 10:00 AM

Bye: Guadalajara (9-5-1), Gallos Blancos de Querétaro (4-5-6)

Liga MX Femenil Table